BJP lost because of six big reasons -- Analysis

BJP lost because of six big reasons -- Analysis

from IntelliBriefs by Naxal Watch

Nachiketa Tiwari

BJP lost because of six big reasons

Pathetic Messaging: It had good messages, but its promises were not believed by the electorate. For instance, the issue of security was blunted by Congress, as it repeatedly brought up the Kandahar issue. As I watched several debates on TV, I saw BJP leaders squirm whenever Kandahar was brought up. Frankly, Shri LKA was not percieved as majboot netaa, and his actions in past were not considered to be nirnayak.

Weak Opposition: Over last five years, the BJP had done a pathetic job as an opposition. For instance, I have a feeling, that on the issue of nuclear deal, BJP actually bailed out Congress (several of BJP's members did not vote against it). Ditto for terrorism, corruption (Natwar Singh), Quattrochi, .... I really do not understand as to what constrained BJP to come out in total open against UPA over last 5 yrs.

Fratricidal Wars: Between diverse elements of Sangh parivar, and also within BJP. The loss of Rajasthan assembly (and now Lok Sabha) should be sufficient for illustrative purposes.

Zero Presences in UP: In 1997, BJP had 50 seats from UP. In 2004, it had 10. Today it has 12. Do you think that this does not matter!!! UP is a game changer. BJP can ignore it only to its own peril.

Cultural: Indian culture is seeing very fundamental challenges, as the really "cool" stuff is beamed down thru TV channels which promote extreme versions of Western lifestyles and values. While the average Indian has not yet adopted these mores in very large numbers, the cultural elite of India (which also imo includes regular IT folks) consciously or unconsciously set the aspirational standards and goals for the aam aadmi. And the image projected by BJP as a party is inconsistent with what is hip in the eyes of aam aadmi (remember Massey Sahib). Thus the regular urban school/college going youth, I have a feeling, is emotionally not engaged with Hindu organization/ ideology. THis is a long term challenge, which will only amplify with passage of time, unless an effective strategy is crafted and put in place to dull the impact of this importan element.

A battle is lost, but not the war

A battle is lost, but not the war

Kanchan Gupta / Analysis

Later that evening, I made a passing reference to the ease with which he was predicting a BJP victory in the face of a concerted Congress assault. Mr Vajpayee laughed it off and then said, “Nobody can predict the outcome of an election, never mind what politicians and pollsters say.” Placing three fingers of his right hand face down on his left palm, he added, “Any election is like a game of ‘teen patti’ (three-card game). Till such time you turn the cards and see them, you can only guess what has been dealt to you. Similarly, till the votes are counted, nobody can say with any certitude what lies in store for the contestants.”

Yes, the Congress has made stupendous gains, but a close scrutiny of the results will show that they are not entirely at the expense of the BJP. Nor have the gains accrued to the Congress on account of either policy or programme.

In States where the BJP has lost seats to the Congress, the credit largely goes to saboteurs within the party. In Maharashtra, the BJP failed to correctly assess the strength of Mr Raj Thackeray’s MNS which has turned out to be a spoiler in Mumbai’s urban constituencies where the party stood a good chance of winning.

By default, the Congress has benefited on account of the BJP’s deficiencies. Nowhere is this more evident than in Uttar Pradesh where the BJP clearly failed to sense the shift in voter preference and ended up under-estimating its ability to pick up additional seats which have now gone to the Congress, swelling its national tally.

These reasons apart, at the end of the day what emerges is that the Congress has reached where it has on account of four factors whose impact could not have been predicted at any stage during the campaign when popular mood is palpable. First, the ‘Chiru factor’ has put paid to the TDP’s hopes of staging a comeback. The Congress has gained in the process. Second, the ‘Vijaykant factor’ has spiked the AIADMK’s electoral prospects. The ‘Black MGR of Tamil Nadu politics’ has turned out to be a classic spoiler. Third, the ‘Mamata factor’ was never seriously factored in, especially by the Left, while calculating the possible outcome of this election. Ironically, the amazing collapse of the Left has worked to the detriment of the BJP. Fourth, the ‘urban factor’ continues to elude logical interpretation.

If the voting trend is any indication, we must come to the conclusion, and regretfully so, that India’s middleclass is no longer guided by the moral compass. Nothing else explains why corruption should cease to be an election issue and the brazen exoneration by the Congress of those who have looted India fetch no more than a cynical, couldn’t-care-less response.

There is, however, no percentage in looking back. The BJP remains a national alternative to the Congress, more so after this election which has pushed regional parties and their identity politics to the margins of national politics. The BJP’s tally is nothing to scoff at.

Zakir Naik at No. 3 among Spiritual Gurus (?)

Zakir Naik at No. 3 among Spiritual Gurus (?)
May 12, 2009

India's prominent Muslim spiritual guru (?) Zakir Naik has been ranked at No. 3 among top 10 spiritual gurus from across religions in the country. Baba Ramdev & Sri Sri Ravishankar are on No. 1 and No. 2 amont top 10 gurus.

He is not Guru.He hates other religions, which is agianst Guru Principle. One Maulavi from Lucknow has issued Fatwa against him for promoting Osama Bin Laden in his lectures.Then How can he become Guru ?

Black money: Notice to 50 Indians with LGT a/cs

Black money: Notice to 50 Indians with LGT a/cs

from IntelliBriefs by Naxal Watch

13 May 2009, 0056 hrs IST, M Padmakshan, ET Bureau

The list, provided by the German government, reportedly contain the names of some prominent Indian businessmen and industrialists. However, the Indian government is under obligation not to make the names public as they were provided under the Indo-German Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA).

The information exchanged under DTAA is confidential, but the government is free to act upon the information.

A way to bring money to India

Mahesh Jethmalani, senior advocate, says the prospect of prosecution could be the most effective way of bringing such money back to India.

The government, in an affidavit to a public interest litigation filed by noted jurist Ram Jethmalani and four others, told the Supreme Court that it has the names of Indians holding accounts in LGT Bank.

However, tax experts and senior income-tax officials opine that there are roadblocks on the way to accessing accounts in LGT bank because of the limitation period that bars the I-T department to take up cases older than six years. Experts say the existing law on limitation needs to be altered. But to be effective, the law should be altered with retrospective effect.

STATE OF SHOCK PERMEATES PRO-HINDUTVA WEB SITES

STATE OF SHOCK PERMEATES PRO-HINDUTVA WEB SITES

from IntelliBriefs by Naxal Watch

B.RAMAN

The pro-Hindutva elements, which regularly visit these web sites and make their postings, are in an astonishing state of shock. There is more introspection already going on in these web sites than in New Delhi and State capitals and there is more loud-thinking than in the endless debates in our TV channels.

It is more interesting and educative to read these postings in the web sites than to listen to the blah, blah, blah of the spokesmen of different parties and the so-called analysts who have congregated in New Delhi.