By Manika Premsingh and R Jagannathan
Census 2011 is likely to throw up a psychologically important figure on India’s religious demographics. For the first time in over a century, the proportion of the Hindu population in the country will probably fall below the 80 percent mark — in keeping with the long-term trend of a significant divergence between Hindu and Muslim growth rates.
Hindus have among the lowest overall sex ratios and child sex ratios in the country as per Census 2001.Amit Dave/Reuters Demographers like Ashish Bose and SC Gulati have varying viewpoints on the subject. While Bose believes that “it is quite likely that the proportion will be below 80% in 2011”, Gulati says that “A secular trend cannot be predicted for religions based on past data”. The latter view is also backed by another Economic & Political Weekly (EPW) research paper “Hindu-Muslim Fertility Differentials”, which says: “It is true that a Hindu-Muslim differential in fertility persists in India’s demographic reality, but it is no more than one child.
It is also not too large to swamp India’s Hindu majority in the foreseeable future. Nor is the gap likely to persist for a very long time as we find that the fertility level among Muslims declines with increasing level of education and standards of living. The faster increase in family planning among Muslims supports this conjecture”.
In a country where Hinduism is the majority religion, it is a unique trend that the proportion of Hindus has shown a secular decline since 1961, matched by a corresponding increase in the proportion of Muslims. While religion is a contentious issue to analyse at any point in time, it is equally imperative to analyse trends deeply enough to understand its socio-economic ramifications.
Firstpost is raising this issue not to pander to any scare-mongering among Hindus, but because it needs to be understood in the right context. As we await the Census 2011 results on religious demographics, we undertook an analysis of this trend and what it means for the future. Our detailed analysis indicates that while the population of Muslims is indeed growing faster than Hindus, this is only partly due to higher birth rates among them; Hindus, on the other had, also carry a responsibility for the trend in the form of lower longevity, as well as widespread prevalence of gender discrimination (and also love jihad) and higher mortality among children.
Explaining the trend
The proportion of Hindus has in the population shrunk from 83.4 percent in 1961 to 80.5 percent according to the 2001 census. This trend matches with an almost equivalent proportional rise among the Muslims — from 10.7 percent to 13.4 percent from 1961 to 2001 (and for this reason we also restrict our study to a comparative analysis between these two religions). A declining proportion of Hindus means either that the growth of Hindus is declining or that of other communities is rising. Or, as in this case, a combination of both.
Decadal growth in the Hindu population has fallen to 19.3% compared with 23.8% in 1961, as per our estimates based on data from the National Minorities Commission and the Census of India 2001. In comparison, the growth in the Muslim population accelerated from 30.6% in 1961 to 34.6% in 2001. (Figures for religious demography in 2011 are yet to be made available).
For a country that has been battling the population problem for decades, while a decline in the proportion of Hindus has been flagged as a source of concern by religious organisations, to others it actually indicates social progression. It is seen as socially progressive since population growth depends on factors like fertility rates and birth rates. These, in turn, are influenced by social factors like literacy, in general, and female literacy, in particular, awareness about contraception methods, average age of marriage and the proportion of working women. Lower fertility and birth rates then are pointers to the development of societies as such.
The social factors
On some metrics, Hindus do perform better. According to estimates published in an EPW research paper on “District level fertility estimates for Hindus and Muslims” in 2005, Crude Birth Rates (CBR, as defined by number of births per 1,000 persons) for Muslims are a much higher at 30.8 as compared with the Hindu number of 24.9 and the all-India average of 25.9. This is also mirrored in a higher Muslim Total Fertility Rate (TFR, as defined by the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years) of 4.1 as compared with 3.1 for Hindus and 3.2 for all India.
It is hard to overlook the fact that trends in birth rates and fertility rates are seen as commensurate with the expected trends for literacy, use of contraception and workforce participation, despite the differences in methodology of estimation and sources.
Hindu women have slightly higher literacy rates than Muslim women at 53.2 percent and 50.1 percent, respectively as per Census 2001, which has been considered as compared with Census 2011 to keep time periods comparable. Moreover, the last National Family Health Survey (NFHS) in 2005-06 found that while 57.8 percent of Hindus were using contraception, the figure was much lower at 45.7 percent among the Muslims suggesting, at least in part, a greater awareness about use of family planning among the Hindus. We also observe a higher proportion for working women among the Hindus at 27.5 percent, this is higher than even the all-India average of 25.6 percent, with the Jains, Muslims and Sikhs accounting for a lower than average proportion.
However, this is only half the story told.
The other side
True, the Hindu population growth has declined because of some social progression. However, Hindus also show dismal performance when it comes to other crucial social attributes, namely, focus on healthcare and gender bias. According to a study by the International Institute for Population Sciences, “Inequality in Human Development by Social and Economic Groups in India”, the life expectancy at birth for Hindus in 2005-06 was 65 years while it was higher at 68 years among Muslims. There is, of course, an element of economic prosperity here as well, with the gap between life expectancy for “poor” Hindus and Muslims being wider than that for the “non-poor” in the two communities. The overall point, however, remains, that at birth a Muslim has a chance of living longer than a Hindu.
This is clearly related to the fact that in childhood itself a higher proportion of Hindus die. Hindus have an infant mortality rate of 58.5, while the same rate among the Muslims is at 52.4, according to the National Family Health Survey (2005-06), where the infant mortality rate is defined as the probability of dying before the first birthday. Similarly, under-5 mortality is at a high of 76 compared with 70 for Muslims. This fact is also echoed in a research paper by the University of Bristol on “Religion and Childhood Death in India”, which says “Muslim children in India face substantially lower mortality risks than Hindu children. This is surprising because one would have expected just the opposite: Muslims have, on average, lower socio-economic status, higher fertility, shorter birth-spacing, and are a minority group in India that may be expected to live in areas that have relatively poor public provision.”
While it remains to be conclusively proved whether Muslims as such provide better healthcare, it has been pointed out that gender bias is one explanation for this trend. According to a 2004 research paper on “Religion and Fertility in India: The role of son preference and daughter aversion” by researchers at University of Ulster and University of Cambridge, “Muslim fertility in India may be higher than Hindu fertility, but we argue that an important, albeit neglected, issue is not that Muslims have more children than Hindus, but that they treat them better on account of significantly lower levels of daughter aversion.”
As per their estimates, male infant mortality rates (where infant mortality rate is defined as the number of infant deaths as a proportion of live births) among Hindus and Muslims are at 4.5 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, but the difference in female infant mortality rates is much higher, with the rate among Hindus at 6.3 percent and that among Muslims at 4.6 percent, respectively. The numbers are further corroborated by the fact that Hindus have among the lowest overall sex ratios and child sex ratios in the country as per the Census 2001. The overall sex ratio is higher only than the Sikhs at 931, compared with the Muslims’ sex ratio at 936. The child-sex ratio for Hindus is even worse than Muslims at 925 as compared with 950 for Muslims. In Census 2011, the overall sex ratio has risen from 933 to 940, but the child-sex ratio has fallen from 927 to 914. The religion-wise breakup will be available only later.
So what do these trends mean for the future? That’s tough to say. While for now it might be difficult to know for sure how religious demographics will develop over the coming decades, what is clear is that it looks to be less about one religion’s growth versus the other, and more a reflection of serious demographic issues to be addressed by both.
Source : Firstpost
Friday, May 20, 2011
Denigration of Sri Ganesh's Aarti
Appeal to devout HindusAs per e-mail received from a devout Hindu it has been observed that a post on the blog - http://ekmarathimanoos.
The post can be seen here : http://ekmarathimanoos.blogspot.com/2011/03/tendleshwarachi-aarti.html
Go to the top of the blog (left side), and follow the the like 'Report Abuse' for 'Spreading Hate' against this blog.
Jane jaan dhhoondhta fir raha..hoon tumhe raat din main yahan se wahan..#Raja
देखो मैंने देखा है एक सपना...तिहाड़ में हो इक बैरक अपना...तू वहां है...मैं यहां हूं...मैं आई-आई-आई आई...राजा!!!!
नई दिल्ली।। केंद्रीय जांच ब्यूरो ( सीबीआई ) की विशेष अदालत ने 2 जी स्पेक्ट्रम मामले में आरोपी द्रविड़ मुनेत्र कड़गम ( डीएमके ) सांसद और तमिलनाडु की पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री करुणानिधि की बेटी कनिमोड़ी की जमानत याचिका खारिज कर दी। उनके साथ कलैग्नर टीवी के प्रमुख शरद कुमार की अर्जी भी खारिज कर दी गई। दोनों को जेल भेज दिया गया। जैसे ही कोर्ट ने कनिमोड़ी की अर्जी खारिज की , कोर्ट परिसर में मौजूद डीएमके कार्यकर्ता दहाड़ मारकर रोने लगे। कोर्ट का फैसला सुनने के बाद कनिमोड़ी की आंखों से भी आंसू छलक पड़े।
इसके पहले शुक्रवार की सुबह सीबीआई जज ओ . पी . सैनी ने कहा था कि मैं फैसला सुना दूंगा , लेकिन इसमें कुछ समय लगेगा , उम्मीद है कि यह फैसला दोपहर 1 बजे के बाद सुनाया जाएगा। उसी वक्त यह माना जाने लगा था कि कनिमोड़ी की जमानत याचिका खारिज कर दी जाएगी।
इसके पहले कनिमोड़ी की जमानत पर सुनवाई के बाद अदालत ने 7 मई को अपना फैसला सुरक्षित रख लिया था। कनिमोड़ी के खिलाफ सीबीआई ने चार्जशीट दाखिल की है , जिसके बाद उन्हें अदालत ने समन जारी किया था।
कनिमोड़ी ने अपनी जमानत याचिका पर सुनवाई के दौरान कहा था कि यदि हम यह मान भी लें कि राजा ने कलैग्नर टीवी के जरिए डायनेमिक्स समूह से 214 करोड़ रुपये की राशि प्राप्त की थी तब भी मेरे खिलाफ अपराध सिद्ध नहीं होता , क्योंकि इस बारे में मैंने किसी दस्तावेज पर हस्ताक्षर नहीं किए। दूसरी ओर , सीबीआई ने अपने चार्जशीट में कहा है कि कनिमोड़ी राजा को दोबारा टेलिकॉम मिनिस्टर बनाने के लिए सक्रिय रूप से मध्यस्थ की भूमिका निभा रही थीं।
गौरतलब है कि डीएमके प्रमुख एम . करुणानिधि की बेटी कनिमोड़ी और शरद कुमार का नाम सीबीआई द्वारा 25 अप्रैल को दायर किए गए चार्जशीट में शामिल किया गया था। सीबीआई ने यह चार्जशीट घोटाले से संबंधित 214 करोड़ रुपये के अवैध हस्तांतरण का पता लगने के बाद दायर किया था।
इस मामले के मुख्य आरोपी और पूर्व टेलिकॉम मिनिस्टर ए . राजा को पहले ही गिरफ्तार किया जा चुका है और तिहाड़ जेल में बंद हैं।
From: BChina artfully steals Russia's land
China is trying to change its borders with Russia again. Spokesmen for the Border Service Agency of the Federal Security Bureau said that, on April 13 and 14 Chinese vessels and barges with excavators aboard were conducting dredging operations in the area of the 146th kilometer of the Ussuri River. The same works were conducted on April 17, in the area of the 215th kilometer of the Ussuri River, in the Khabarovsk region, Russia.
The Chinese vessels unloaded the excavated soil on other parts of the river, which may also change the watercourse of the border river, Russian official said.
The above-mentioned activities were conducted without Russia's agreement, which violated the inter-governmental border agreement between the two countries.
Such reports arrive from the Far East of Russia on a regular basis, almost every year. Every time when it happens, Russia asks for explanations, but China leaves Russian inquiries ignored.
Moscow handed over the islands on the Amur River near the city of Khabarovsk under China's control in an attempt to solve the territorial dispute with the Celestial Empire once and for all. China has not set any territorial claims to Russia yet, but it just so happens that the country is trying to do it in an artful way.**********
"Beijing has not given up on the attempts to change the riverbed of border rivers. It means that China follows its ancient tradition observing treaties as long as they are profitable for the country. Thus, China openly demonstrates that the territorial problem with Russia has not been solved.
"As experience shows, in such cases China usually chooses the tactics of silence. Instead of negotiations, the country simply continues to do what it needs to do. I am not sure that Russia will be willing to ruin its relations with China over small islands, even though they are strategically important. It is ridiculous to discuss this problem at the UN too. China, as a member of the Security Council, will simply veto the discussion."For the time being, we can only watch China stealing territories from Russia - the territories, which China considers its own. China is desperate for new territories, and the country will be trying to get them from all of its neighbors," the expert said.
Four Hindus in Singapore Ministry, including Deputy PM
In the new cabinet announced by Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, there are four Hindus including Deputy Pime Minister
1) Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam – Deputy Prime Minister & Minister for Finance & Minister for Manpower
2) Mr K Shanmugam – Minister for Foreign Affairs & Minister for Law
3) Mr S Iswaran – Minister, Prime Minister’s Office & Second Minister for Home Affairs & Second Minister for Trade and Industry
4) Dr Vivian Balakrishnan – Mnister for the Environment and Water Resources.