Thursday, February 24, 2011
The famous phrase about UP elections is “In UP, they don’t cast their vote, but vote their caste”. With the next assembly election in 2012 or earlier, parties are back on drawing boards to look for a winning combination. Obviously, nobody is worried about issues and agendas. The only thing that matter in UP is caste combination. So here is a realistic analysis of mood of UP.
UP elections are a four way fight among BSP (Mayawati), SP (Mulayam), BJP and INC with RLD making it 5-way fight in some districts of western UP. This makes it very clear that whichever party crosses 30% votes, it can be sure of majority in UP. The caste composition of this decider state in Indian politics is as followed. Mind you these are approximate figures.
Upper castes 16% (Brahmin 8%, Thakur 5%, Vaishya 3%)
Backward castes 35% (Yadav 13%, Kurmi 12%, Other 10%)
Now let us see how castes are swinging recently in UP.
Brahmins voted mostly for BSP in last election with some votes going to BJP and INC. This time brahmins are fed up with BSP. So their votes shall split between BJP and INC. Thakurs were spilt between BJP and SP in last election. With the exit of Amar Singh, BJP might get all thakur votes. Vaishyas have always been loyal supporter of BJP.
Backward castes usually vote based on the leader, a particular party projects as chief minister. So, Yadavs are loyal to SP, Kurmis to BJP and other OBCs split between BJP and SP based on the local equation with two dominant OBC caste. The point to note is that OBCs can never join hands with Dalits due to mutual hostility at grass root level. Jats in western UP vote for RLD of Ajit Singh and give him around 10 seats consistantly.
Dalit votes are the most solid vote bank in history of India. They vote for Mayawati, full-stop. If you field a donkey on BSP ticket, they will vote for it.
Predicting Muslim votes is most tricky thing in UP politics. Muslims have voted tactically to SP, INC, BSP in that order to ensure win of a muslim candidate or to ensure defeat of BJP. Usually SP gets majority muslim votes with INC sharing a small percentage. But this time around we can see a swing of muslim votes towards BSP.
So to sum up, here is the rough position – (total seats 403)
BSP 225 seats | 34% (Dalits 25%, Muslims 8%, Upper castes 1%)
BJP 80 seats | 27% (Upper castes 10%, Kurmi 12%, other OBCs 5%)
SP 70 seats | 26% (Yadavs 13%, Muslims 8%, other OBCs 5%)
INC 15 seats | 5% (Upper castes 3%, Muslims 2%)
RLD 10 seats | 5% (Jats 5%)
This shows that Mayawati might win another full majority in UP in 2012. SP and BJP are in neck to neck fight to grab the second position. INC and RLD have their 10-15 seats and they seem content with that. A communal polarization can break the caste boundaries in favor of BJP and swing of Muslim votes towards SP is also sure then. Only in that case BSP can loose. BJP should consider consolidating its upper caste and OBC votes by projecting some credible OBC as their leader, if they want to revive party seriously. INC must understand that road shows do not win local assembly elections, candidates do.
The mayawati government is a very corrupt government, still people are happy compare to mulayam raj as the streets are clean and goondaraj is on control. Price rise and corruption has eroded image of INC beyond control.
So fellas, if election are held today, this is the prediction, what do you think about participating in “we loath mayawati” game played by Indian media and middle classes, because whatever your wishes are, she is here to stay.
आईये, मेरा, आपका, जनता का कार्यकुशल मंत्रिमण्डल बनायें… (एक माइक्रो पोस्ट)…… Cabinet from People of India
पेश है मेरी निम्नलिखित लिस्ट, कई महत्वपूर्ण विभाग खाली भी हैं (अभी उपयुक्त नाम दिमाग में नहीं आ रहे), आप अपना महत्वपूर्ण सुझाव दे सकते हैं… सभी का स्वागत है… यह भी जरुरी नहीं है कि मेरी सूची से सहमत हुआ जाये…
राष्ट्रपति – APJ अब्दुल कलाम
प्रधानमंत्री – नरेन्द्र मोदी (भाजपा)
लोकसभा अध्यक्ष – डॉ मनोहर जोशी (शिवसेना), अथवा पीए संगमा
गृह मंत्री – डॉ किरण बेदी (निर्दलीय)
रक्षा मंत्री – एके एण्टोनी (कांग्रेस)
वित्त मंत्रालय – (नाम सुझाएं)
कानून-न्याय एवं संविधान मामलों के मंत्री – डॉ सुब्रह्मण्यम स्वामी (जनता पार्टी)
सामाजिक न्याय एवं ग्रामीण विकास – डॉ रघुवंश प्रसाद (राजद)
सूचना-प्रसारण मंत्रालय – अरुण शौरी (भाजपा)
खेल एवं युवा मामले – ज्योतिरादित्य सिंधिया (कांग्रेस) अथवा चेतन भगत (लेखक)
पर्यावरण मंत्रालय – डॉ सुरेश प्रभु (भाजपा)
वाणिज्य मंत्रालय – डॉ जयराम रमेश (कांग्रेस)
भूतल परिवहन (सड़क) मंत्रालय – नितिन गडकरी
कृषि मंत्रालय – डॉ स्वामीनाथन (निर्दलीय)
अल्पंसख्यक कल्याण मंत्रालय – आरिफ़ मोहम्मद खान (बसपा)
कार्मिक, पेंशन एवं लोकलेखा मंत्रालय – अरविन्द केजरीवाल