Thursday, February 24, 2011

In UP, you don’t cast your vote but vote your caste – maya is coming back in 2012

In UP, you don’t cast your vote but vote your caste – maya is coming back in 2012: "

The famous phrase about UP elections is “In UP, they don’t cast their vote, but vote their caste”. With the next assembly election in 2012 or earlier, parties are back on drawing boards to look for a winning combination. Obviously, nobody is worried about issues and agendas. The only thing that matter in UP is caste combination. So here is a realistic analysis of mood of UP.

UP elections are a four way fight among BSP (Mayawati), SP (Mulayam), BJP and INC with RLD making it 5-way fight in some districts of western UP. This makes it very clear that whichever party crosses 30% votes, it can be sure of majority in UP. The caste composition of this decider state in Indian politics is as followed. Mind you these are approximate figures.

Upper castes 16% (Brahmin 8%, Thakur 5%, Vaishya 3%)

Backward castes 35% (Yadav 13%, Kurmi 12%, Other 10%)

Dalits 25%

Muslims 18%

Jats 5%

Others 1%

Now let us see how castes are swinging recently in UP.

Brahmins voted mostly for BSP in last election with some votes going to BJP and INC. This time brahmins are fed up with BSP. So their votes shall split between BJP and INC. Thakurs were spilt between BJP and SP in last election. With the exit of Amar Singh, BJP might get all thakur votes. Vaishyas have always been loyal supporter of BJP.

Backward castes usually vote based on the leader, a particular party projects as chief minister. So, Yadavs are loyal to SP, Kurmis to BJP and other OBCs split between BJP and SP based on the local equation with two dominant OBC caste. The point to note is that OBCs can never join hands with Dalits due to mutual hostility at grass root level. Jats in western UP vote for RLD of Ajit Singh and give him around 10 seats consistantly.

Dalit votes are the most solid vote bank in history of India. They vote for Mayawati, full-stop. If you field a donkey on BSP ticket, they will vote for it.

Predicting Muslim votes is most tricky thing in UP politics. Muslims have voted tactically to SP, INC, BSP in that order to ensure win of a muslim candidate or to ensure defeat of BJP. Usually SP gets majority muslim votes with INC sharing a small percentage. But this time around we can see a swing of muslim votes towards BSP.

So to sum up, here is the rough position – (total seats 403)

BSP 225 seats | 34% (Dalits 25%, Muslims 8%, Upper castes 1%)

BJP 80 seats | 27% (Upper castes 10%, Kurmi 12%, other OBCs 5%)

SP 70 seats | 26% (Yadavs 13%, Muslims 8%, other OBCs 5%)

INC 15 seats | 5% (Upper castes 3%, Muslims 2%)

RLD 10 seats | 5% (Jats 5%)

This shows that Mayawati might win another full majority in UP in 2012. SP and BJP are in neck to neck fight to grab the second position. INC and RLD have their 10-15 seats and they seem content with that. A communal polarization can break the caste boundaries in favor of BJP and swing of Muslim votes towards SP is also sure then. Only in that case BSP can loose. BJP should consider consolidating its upper caste and OBC votes by projecting some credible OBC as their leader, if they want to revive party seriously. INC must understand that road shows do not win local assembly elections, candidates do.

The mayawati government is a very corrupt government, still people are happy compare to mulayam raj as the streets are clean and goondaraj is on control. Price rise and corruption has eroded image of INC beyond control.

So fellas, if election are held today, this is the prediction, what do you think about participating in “we loath mayawati” game played by Indian media and middle classes, because whatever your wishes are, she is here to stay.